The Copy-Trader's Gap

The one-sentence finding

The public can see congressional trades only after periodic transaction reports are filed. In Vigil's trailing-12-month dataset, that delay had a measurable cost: the gap between the average return from a member's trade date and the same position's return from a conservative post-filing proxy was 8.62 percentage points, or 55.5% of the observable edge.

The pattern also holds year-to-date (+15.51% versus +6.60%, n=1,091). The most recent 90 days are closer (+4.88% versus +4.16%, n=165), when both clocks have had less time to move.

The routine delay is the point

Across 3,676 individual transactions by 112 members, the median lag between a trade and its reported filing was 28 days; the middle half landed 19–41 days later. One July 21 filing from Sen. Alan Armstrong contained 703 transactions dating to March. It accounts for 701 of the 789 records over 45 days. Excluding that batch, the median lag is 25 days and 3.0% of transactions are more than 45 days late.

This is not a compliance verdict. Filing extensions can be granted, and the statutory clock is not simply the transaction date. The central finding is narrower: ordinary, lawful disclosure timing can make the return measured at a member's trade date unavailable to the public.

How we measured it

Vigil ingested public House Clerk and Senate periodic transaction reports, estimated disclosed dollar ranges at their midpoints, and tracked member-and-ticker positions using FIFO cost basis. Options-linked records were excluded and returns were capped at ±500% as a data-quality guard.

For the disclosure-side figure, we used the first U.S. market close strictly after the reported filing date, within five business days. Filings expose a date, not a verified public timestamp, so this is a conservative next-session proxy—not an executable entry price and not the earliest moment a follower could act. Prices are adjusted daily closes from a public source.

Important limitations

• Dollar ranges and resulting share counts are estimates, not exact trade amounts.
• Open positions are marked to market; realized and unrealized outcomes are mixed.
• Positions have different holding periods, so this is not a market-benchmark claim.
• Filing dates have no timestamps, and source-date errors flow into the proxy.
• Disclosure lag is not evidence of a filing violation.

What this is—and is not

This report measures the cost of delayed information on the same disclosed positions. It does not claim that Congress beats the market, that a follower could execute at the proxy price, or that any member traded illegally. It is not investment advice and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

For journalists and researchers, Vigil can provide the methodology, normalized public inputs, and reproducibility materials behind these figures on request. Contact Reno Labs through the Vigil App Store listing.